Presidential candidate of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, is to win the February 25, 2023 poll. An interim report from a nine-month study, led by Dr. Oludare Ogunlana of June Group Research and Council for African Security Affairs (CASA) with other intelligence practitioners in the United States, Europe and Nigeria, pointed to the PDP candidate as a potential winner ahead of his All Progressives Congress (APC), Labour Party (LP) and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) rivals, Bola Tinubu, Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso, using four key variables: political geography, religion, resources and class.
It observed that the the study’s scope “is limited to observing political actors and interviews with stakeholders in organsations from across six zones of Nigeria and Nigerians in the Diaspora: political leaders, women groups, religious organisations, civil societies, trade unions and youth organisations. In each interview, we focused on five areas: personality of the candidates, ethnic influence, religion, power of incumbency, voters’ behaviour, emotions’ role, political socialisation and tolerance of diversity of political views.”
The report continued: “The study that started in May 2022 accurately predicted outcome of the PDP and APC primaries and emergence of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Senator Bola Tinubu as candidates for their respective parties.
“We identified where the political influencers, religious leaders, organisations and Nigerians in the Diaspora stood with voting President in February 2023 and how it aligned to victory for each candidate. In addition, we gathered data from facilitated workshops and interactive survey sessions with Nigerian political thought leaders, which include lawyers, political activists and former and current serving political office holders.
“While we respect various polls that have put a particular candidate as the preferred candidate to win the election, we state that data alone does not speak for itself significantly when such data is based on manipulation and sectional polling. The result of every data must be put into context, including understanding the people, culture, pattern, geographical spread of the platform and historical antecedents.
“In conclusion, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is expected to garner 64 per cent from the three zones in the North, rake 45 per cent from the South-South region, where his running mates come from, acquire 37 per cent from the South-East with 27 per cent from the South-West, which is the stronghold of the APC candidate.”
